positive expectation win bets. c div p er 1) 2) By the Harville formula (Harville ), the estimated probability of a 1,2 or. simple win betting ratios and the Harville formula). These indirect estimates would then be paired with the direct estimates (the betting ratios in the exacta pools). HARVILLE, D. A., “Assigning Probabilities to the Outcomes of Multi-Entry Competitions,” J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., Vol. 68 (), pp. HAUSCH, D. B.

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Post Your Answer Discard By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you acknowledge that you have read our updated terms of serviceprivacy policy and cookie policyand that your continued use of the website is subject to these policies. Where have we got the ‘sum of probbilities’ from are you talking about the place probs now or the win probs? Given every horse’s probability of winning a race, what is the probability that a specific horse will finish 2nd and 3rd? Many races might be such that the Harville formulae would work fine, but other races would need an adaption to the numbers that would be very specific to the horses in that particular race.

Choose a web site to get translated content where available and see local events and offers. It is mainly about the authors method of place and show betting which requires them to compute Harville probabilities.

Discounted Harville – Page 2 – Horse Racing Forum – – Horse Racing Message Board

I found it useful to use a 2D harvillee for exacta prob. I have included the “informed Factor” size into my bet size calculations. Find More Posts by jfdinneen. Contact Us – PaceAdvantage.


Michael, Apologies for not replying sooner but I have not logged on to the forum for a couple of days. Horse Racing Forum – PaceAdvantage. Spot Jun 22 ’14 at 6: Based on your location, we recommend that you select: It appears that Google deleted the original “Harville” spreadsheet from the blog some time ago, without requesting my permission?

Post as a guest Name. There is some pretty interesting stuff there.

I’ve been so impressed with the level of knowledge here, I’ve no idea how I hadn’t found this forum before. I thought it worth bringing this thread back to the board. Copyright – — PaceAdvantage. Ugly multivariate normal integrals to approximate. All good so far. Select the China site in Chinese or English for best site performance.

harville – File Exchange – MATLAB Central

harvville Michael, Apologies for not replying sooner but I have not logged on to the forum for a couple of days. Is anybody able to tell me these formulas or point me somewhere I can get them?

I just clicked one on of the links “how not to be wrong Sign up using Email and Password. There are many valid critiques of this formula. See also “discounted harville formula” google. Mwilding, If you have a database with public probabilities, you could have different coefficients than. I just clicked one on of the links “how not to be wrong This subject theory is very academic, rather than practical or true to life – as is typical of economists – it is better to assess each race as it comes and just be guided by the average corrections – which you may judge too high or low for a particular race.


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Horse Racing Forum – PaceAdvantage. Correcting this way is also a sweeping assumption and is not based on any evidence – just unproven economist theory.

I can’t see any reason for this though!! So am I right in understanding that if you are using your own probabilities then use the. Find More Posts by Dave Schwartz. Most recently “Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias: Sign up or log in Sign up using Google. Harville at the Georgetown U. I’m not sure if jfdinneen or mwilding are still about, or if anyone jarville can help, but I decided to try in excel the formulas jfd contributed so generously below.

In my younger days, I tried to follow their method at the track. Placing probability depends far more on the horses involved in a race than on the maths. All of the HorseData objects are contained in a List called hdList. And then they adjust the Harville values based on a regression with track data.